Adversarial Analysis
In this guide we'll dive into "adversarial analysis" for smart contract systems. Adversarial analysis means to analyze your system from the point of a potential malicious 3rd party which might want to hamper or attack your system. This guide will build further on knowledge from the the transaction lifecycle guide.
The Happy Case
As long as all Bitcoin Cash miners follow the first-seen rule then you can count on the idea that competing transaction chains can only occur due to accidental race conditions caused by simultaneous users. In the case of an attempted double spend, full nodes on the BCH network won't relay the transaction, and even if the transaction reaches the mempool of a miner, they would discard the transaction because of the first seen rule.
The "happy case" scenario is currently the standard lifecycle for transactions on the Bitcoin Cash network, also for DeFi transactions interacting with on-chain DEXes.
The Adversarial Case
The adversarial case is where 3rd parties intentionally double spend unconfirmed transactions in the contract system with the goal to extract value or to disrupt the experience for normal users.
In an adversarial environment where double spends occur, user-created transactions interacting with public are not certain to be confirmed. This means waiting for block confirmations is required to be sure the transaction isn't cancelled.
There is 2 categories to consider for adversarial double spends:
1) Race-condition double spends (no miner help required)
2) Late double spends (miner help required)
Race-condition Double Spends
The first scenario of race-condition double spends do not benefit the adversarial 3rd party, instead the goal would just be griefing: to disrupt the flow for normal users. The double spend can cause the user-transaction to be cancelled even though from the user point-of-view it already looked like the transaction went through and achieved its goal.
For an adversarial attack to pull off this time-sensitive attack, he would require extensive monitoring on the p2p network and quickly be able to generate and broadcast competing double spend transactions.
Late Double Spends
In the case of an late double spend (which does not try to exploit a race condition) the adversarial actor need help from a miner. Either the adversarial actor needs to convince the miners to abandon their first seen rule or he needs to be mining himself to be able to construct his own block.
Both race-condition and late double spends can both be used to grief the experience for normal users, however only late double spends can be used to extract economic value.
To convince existing miners to include the double spend transaction instead of the original, the malicious attacker will include a significantly higher mining fee than the original transaction. This can be seen as a 'miner bribe' being paid to discard the first-seen rule and to accept the double spend instead of the original.
Attempting a double spend in this way does not incur risk to the adversarial party, either their transaction is not included and they don't pay any fee, or they successfully perform the double spend and they pay the high fee "miner bribe".
Economic Value Extraction
We will now consider what motive the adversarial actor might have to perform these bribes. The two classes of motives are either the profit motive for an economically motivated actor or causing on-chain disruption for a maliciously motivated actor.
Stale-state arbitrage
If DEXes don't cleverly aggregate their prices across blocks, then it can be economical for adversarial actors to instead of building on the latest transaction in the unconfirmed transaction chain of a smart contract, to instead create a competing transaction chain building on an older state. By strategically creating a competing transaction chain they might be able to take advantage of an older price state/ratio which has not yet been confirmed in the blockchain.
Because having a more advantageous (older) price state or ratio might be very profitable, it is worth it for the adversarial actor to pay the high fee "miner bribe" to attempt this double spend transaction.
We list some possible mitigations which smart contract systems can implement in the section on 'Avoiding MEV'
Miner-Extractable-Value (MEV)
Miner-Extractable-Value (MEV) refers to the value (either in dollars or in BCH) which miners can "extract" by having the ability to decide transaction inclusion and the ability to prioritize or insert their own transactions in their new block.
On Ethereum the acronym was changed to mean "Maximum-Extractable-Value" because ETH is now a proof-of-stake system and does not have miners. The modified concept still applies to the ETH block proposers (validators).
MEV Differences from ETH
MEV works quite differently on a UTXO-model blockchain than on an account-based chain. So even if you are very familiar with the MEV mechanisms on Ethereum it will still be helpful to consider how they do - or do not - apply to Bitcoin Cash.
What is not possible to do on UTXO chains is a "sandwich" strategy where a miner would insert a transaction in the middle of a valid transaction chain. In UTXO each transaction explicitly consumes inputs of a previous transaction and creates outputs. Because of this it is not possible to "insert" a transaction in the middle of an unconfirmed chain and thus sandwich strategies are not possible.
Controlling Block-Construction
The reason why block producers are better positioned than other economic actors such as on-chain traders or arbitrageurs is that they can prioritize their own transactions even if conflicting transactions exist in the mempool.
Other actors who construct double spend transactions will face great difficulty in getting their transaction to propagate and in having to pay high mining fees to bribe miners to accept their double spend over the original transaction.
Expected Evolution of MEV
Below we will extend the adversarial analysis by extrapolating the evolution of MEV on Bitcoin cash based on the example of more mature DeFi ecosystems like Ethereum. As mentioned at the start, the "happy case" scenario is currently the standard lifecycle for transactions on BCH. The analysis below is speculatively extrapolating how this could evolve in a mature DeFi ecosystem.
Abandoning First-Seen
If over time "bribe" double spends start happening on BCH then we can expect over time that some miners will deflect from the convention and use custom transaction selection software to extract MEV from bribe transactions. Over time we can expect miners not just to prefer bribes when available but to actively build transactions to extract from or create value for DeFi protocols.
Adversarial analysis should take into account that "first-seen rule" is just a convention and a way to play nice, however it is not economically maximizing when double spends include miner bribes.
Specialized Block-Builders
As described in the section on "stale-state arbitrage" economic actors ay be incentivized to strategically create a competing transaction chain which takes advantage of an older price state/ratio which has not yet been confirmed in the blockchain. Although miners are not specialized in the optimal construction of DeFi transactions in a block, miner would over time be likely to team up with teams/companies creating this type of software for them.
Ethereum with its large amount of MEV has already seen the emergence of specialized 'block builder' as a new class of relevant economic actors separate from the block proposer (who signs the block).
